043
FXUS65 KVEF 051731
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
931 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry, mild, and warm weather will continue across the region
  through Friday when we will see slight chances for showers
  across the western portions of our forecast area.

* A pattern shift remains on track for early next week, bringing
  cooler, unsettled weather to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

The upper-level blocking pattern responsible for the dry, warm
weather of the past few days will begin to break down today. As far
as today`s weather goes, the most noticable evidence of this
breakdown will be increasing cloud cover this afternoon and evening
as the area of low pressure to our south begins to lift north and
phase with an incoming trough off the coast of California. On Friday
this system will dig south along the coast before eventually
passing through to our south. Over the past 24-hours, models have
trended further off-shore with this system as it digs south,
resulting in a westward shift of forecast precipitation. The best
precipitation chances on Friday will be across the higher terrain
of the Western Mojave Desert through Inyo County and into the
Southwestern Great Basin. While we will see temperature cool a few
degrees from today to tomorrow, snow-levels will remain above
7,500 feet, limiting new snow accumulations to a dusting with an
inch or two possible at the peaks in the Spring Mountains and
Eastern Sierra.

Weak, transient ridging will attempt to build in over the weekend;
but with the Rex Block gone, the door will remain open for
additional low pressure systems to impact the region. The first of
these systems will impact the area early next week, bringing
cooler temperatures and unsettled weather to the region. Exact
temperatures, snow-levels, wind speeds, and precipitation amounts
remain uncertain at this time due to interensemble variability
regarding the timing, strength, and evolution of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will follow typical daily directional patterns today, with speeds
remaining under 8KT. VFR conditions prevail through sunset with
increasing mid-level and high clouds overnight. Ceilings becoming
SCT-BKN between 10-12kft by midnight with FEW-SCT 8kft between 12-
18Z. Showers likely over the higher terrain to the west between 10-
18Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Across most of the area,
winds will remain around 5-10KT and follow typical daily directional
patterns. Exceptions to this are expected in the western Mojave
including KDAG, where easterly winds are expected to briefly gust to
15-20KT this afternoon. Through the Lower Colorado River Valley,
terrain enhancement will produce elevated/gusty winds in the
vicinity of KIFP, with sustained winds around 15KT gusting to 25KT
through mid afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon,
with mid-level and high clouds increasing by late afternoon from
south to north. SCT-BKN between 10-12kft by this evening with
showers mainly across the higher terrain of SE Cal and southern
Nevada overnight and through Friday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Czyzyk

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office