338
FXUS65 KVEF 010543
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1043 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures through the
  holiday weekend.

* A mid-week influx of monsoonal moisture brings precipitation
  chances up and temperatures down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday.

High pressure is currently in place over the western United States,
which will maintain temperatures a few degrees above average today
and tomorrow. This will result in widespread Moderate with some
isolated areas of Major HeatRisk in certain valleys around the
Mojave Desert, including Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley.
Precipitation is not expected at most locations. Some low and mid
level moisture remains below 500 mb, but dry and stable above 500 mb
should limit shower development. The only location with
precipitation potential today is the eastern Sierra. The presence of
slightly higher moisture and a boost from orographic lift may allow
for isolated shower development near Bishop this afternoon.

An area of low pressure will move inland midweek, which will push
the high eastward and allow monsoonal moisture to advect back into
the region. Low end PoPs return to southern Mohave County as early
as Monday afternoon, but anything that does develop will remain
isolated and generally over the higher terrain. Moisture increases
on Tuesday with improved southeasterly flow. The trajectory seems to
favor eastern California on Tuesday before a shortwave pushes the
moisture east on Wednesday, causing the highest POPs to shift east
into southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and eastern San
Bernardino County. From there, moisture and instability will
continue to increase through the end of the week. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. More specific forecasting
of convection will likely have to be done on a day-by-day basis as
preceding convection and cloud cover will greatly influence the
daily evolution of precipitation chances. Regardless, flash flooding
and strong outflow winds are potential hazards with these storms.
Stay tuned for details with upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will follow their typical daily directional patterns with speeds
of 10 knots or less through tomorrow morning. Easterly winds may
flirt with 10 knots at times tomorrow afternoon. Wind speed will
decrease after sunset. VFR conditions will persist with FEW mid-
level clouds will develop over the higher terrain tomorrow
afternoon. Temperatures will top out around 104, with temperatures
exceeding 100F between 20Z and 04Z.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Smoke from the Garnet
Fire on the west side of the Sierra is forecast to move into the
Owens Valley tonight, with temporary reductions in visibility
possible through the overnight period into the morning hours. Winds
will follow typical daily directional patterns through tomorrow
morning with sustained speeds of 12 knots or less. Breezy southerly
winds will pick up across the area tomorrow, with the exception of
the western Mojave Desert where breezy east-southeastely winds will
pick up in the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Stessman

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NWS Flagstaff Office