346
FXUS66 KLOX 052038
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1238 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...05/1155 AM.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Friday as a weak upper low
moves into the area. Warmer temperatures will return Saturday and
peak Sunday with highs around 10 degrees above normal. A return to
normal temperatures is expected by next Tuesday with a chance of
light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...05/1225 PM.

Another warm, offshore flow day across the area with highs in the
70s and 80s. Most areas cooled at least a few degrees from
yesterday as gradients trended onshore and some high clouds moved
overhead during the time of peak heating. Changes are finally
coming to the overall weather pattern but there remains a lot of
uncertainty on timing and we`re not completely done with the hot
weather just yet.

In the very short term, significant cooling is expected tomorrow
as gradients actually turn onshore for the first time in several
days. Some patchy low clouds and fog are possible near the coast
in the morning and by afternoon most areas should be at least
5-10 degrees cooler than today. This is the result of a weak upper
low splitting off from a trough in the Pac NW and moving into our
coastal waters region Friday and then moving onshore over
northern Baja on Saturday. The low has some energy associated with
it as demonstrated by the cooling cloud tops a few hundred miles
west of Pt Conception. Models are picking up on this as well,
showing some weak instability tomorrow, mainly over the mountains.
This is likely what the ensemble models were seeing earlier in
the week when they were indicating some possibilities for light
precip in the area Friday. This is still not a zero chance, and if
something happens it would more likely be an isolated dry
lightning strike in the mountains. But also can`t rule out a brief
and isolated light shower just about anywhere. Chances are less
than 15% and thus not enough to put in the official forecast.

The upper low will exit the area by Friday night with dry and
warmer conditions Saturday and peaking Sunday as gradients turn
back offshore and high pressure aloft returns. Not expecting a
return of advisory level northeast winds but could see some breezy
conditions in the usual areas that are favored for Santa Ana
winds. Highs expected to return to the low to mid 80s across the
valleys by Sunday (or possibly as early as Saturday) and some
coastal areas as well.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...05/1238 PM.

High pressure aloft will begin to shift east out of the area
Monday but not before another day of well above normal
temperatures.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and the rest of next
week as the upper level pattern finally changes to more of a
troughy pattern along the West coast. The first chance for rain
still appears to be on Tuesday and models continue to indicate
just a very light amounts of precip with that one, likely under a
quarter inch in most areas. And there are at least 20-30% of the
ensemble solutions showing little or no rain with this first
system.

There`s a second and third system later in the week into early the
following week (between the 14th and 18th), the latter of which
appears to be the strongest of the trio. Up until that time, most
of the models are favoring mostly just light rain amounts. But
there is overall high confidence in much cooler temperatures
locally.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1839Z.

At 0852Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in TAFs, until 09Z Fri when MVFR cigs become
possible at coastal sites south of Point Conception. However,
there is a 40% chance of VFR conditions through the period at
sites where cigs are forecast, and heights may be off by +/- 500
ft.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF, until around 09Z Fri when
BKN010-BKN025 cigs become possible. However there is a 40% chance
of VFR conditions through the period. Good confidence that any
east wind component will be under 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF, except for after 12Z there is a
10% chance of BKN010-BKN025 cigs developing.

&&

.MARINE...05/844 AM.

Offshore easterly winds will continue from Ventura to Malibu and
out to Anacapa/Santa Cruz Islands at times thru Thursday morning.

By this evening, winds and seas are expected to fall below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through late tonight.

Seas are likely to reach SCA levels by Friday morning across the
Outer Waters and nearshore along the Central Coast. The hazardous
seas could last through Saturday evening especially south of Point
Conception.

There is moderate chance for winds to reach SCA levels across the
Outer waters south and west of the Channel Islands late Saturday
afternoon into evening hours. Low to moderate chance for SCA winds
across far northern waters (PZZ670) if the coastal jet develops.

Confidence increases by Sunday afternoon/evening for widespread
SCA level winds to develop which could persist well into next week.
These winds could spread into the Santa Barbara Channel & western
portions of the PZZ655 at times. There is also a chance for GALES
across climatologically favored waters. Hazardous seas are also
likely as two rounds of swells propagate into our coastal waters
mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...05/852 AM.

An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean will
generate a series of swells which will propagate towards our
coastline, first arriving on Friday and lasting well into next
week. There is a high chance of an extended period of elevated
surf. There is high confidence in advisory level surf with minor
coastal flooding possible Friday through Sunday morning, then
moderate confidence in additional high surf Monday into Tuesday
(and possibly longer) of next week.

Peak surf heights are likely to be between 10 to 15 ft for west-
facing beaches along the Central Coast, and between 5 to 9 ft
south of Point Conception.

***UPDATE AS OF 12 AM THURSDAY***

Have issued a High Surf Advisory for Santa Barbara County south
coast valid from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM Saturday. See CFWLOX and
SRFLOX for more details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM
      PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office