016
FXUS66 KLOX 050017
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
417 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/416 PM.

Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, a general warming trend and
periods of offshore winds are likely through the week. The warmest
and windiest conditions are likely on Friday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/107 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, trough moves over the area tonight
and Thursday, then into the Great Basin on Friday and Saturday as
a ridge builds over the area. At the surface, offshore flow
gradually increases through the period.

Forecast-wise, main issues in the short term will be winds and
temperatures. With respect to winds, the area can expect a gradual
increase in northeasterly winds through Saturday. Through
Thursday, the upper level support looks minimal, so any offshore
winds are expected to remain below advisory levels. However by
Friday and Saturday, the upper level support looks to increase
along with the surface pressure gradients. So, the chances for
low-end advisory level winds look to increase across the Santa Ana
wind corridor of Ventura/LA counties as well as the Santa Lucia
Range in San Luis Obispo county. Looking at the ensembles, the
chances for gusts in the 35-50 MPH range look to be in the 30-50%
range for Friday and Saturday. So, would not be surprised to see
some wind advisories be issued by future shifts for this Friday
and Saturday time period.

The secondary concern through the short term period will be
temperatures. The combination of increasing offshore pressure
gradients and building upper level ridge will bring an noticeable
warming trend to the area. At this time, Saturday looks to be the
warmest day in the short term with widespread upper 70s and 80s
across the coasts and coastal valleys. Looking at Heat Risk
forecasts, widespread MODERATE HEAT RISK is likely by Saturday
across the coastal plain and coastal valleys with even some
isolated MAJOR HEAT RISK. So, later shifts may need to consider
heat products for some areas.

Given the gusty offshore winds, warming temperatures and dry
conditions, there will be elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions across the area by Friday and Saturday. Recent
rainfall has helped mitigate the fire threat a bit, but live fuel
moistures are still in the 65-80% range which means the area is
not "out of the woods" with respect to the fire threat. There is a
30% chance of "targeted" Red Flag Warnings on Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/107 PM.

For the extended, models are on the same synoptic page. At upper
levels, ridge will be a bit "undercut" by a weak upper low,
resulting in some lowering of the H5 heights. At the surface, the
offshore flow will gradually weaken with weak diurnal flow
prevailing by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Forecast-wise, the above synoptic pattern will result in dry and
benign weather fore the area. Overall, skies should remain mostly
clear through the period, but some stratus/fog could possibly
return to the coastal plain by Tuesday or Wednesday. As for
temperatures, Sunday will be the warmest day with a gradual
cooling trend Monday through Wednesday as ridge weakens and
offshore flow weakens and eventually turns weakly onshore. Finally
for winds, any offshore winds should remain below advisory levels
on Sunday with no wind issues expected Monday through Wednesday.

A bit further out into the following weekend (November 13-16),
models are still indicating a wet and unsettled pattern across the
area. At this time, there is relatively high confidence in
widespread measurable rainfall, but low confidence in timing and
amounts. AI ensembles indicate at least a 40-60% chance of rain
totals greater than one inch and a 20-40% chance of totals greater
than two inches. Obviously, the details of this potential wet
weekend will change over the coming days, but everyone should be
aware of the potential. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0015Z.

At 2327Z at LAX, there was no inversion and no marine layer.

Overall, high confidence in the 00Z TAF package as CAVU
conditions are expected through the period. However, there is a
10-20% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB between 10Z-17Z Thu.

KLAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are
expected through the period. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are
expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...04/811 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today
through Friday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds and seas will prevail. For Saturday and Sunday, SCA level
seas are expected to continue with winds dropping below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, there is
a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening
hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20% chance of SCA
level north to northeast winds, mainly in the overnight and
morning hours and seas will approach SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels, except
for SCA winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel in the late
afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Saturday, there
is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south
to Santa Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy,
short-period, seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 7 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office