428
FXUS66 KLOX 232106
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
206 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...23/116 PM.

Warmer than normal conditions are expected to persist along the
Central Coast through the week, peaking on Tuesday. Warming
temperatures are expected elsewhere, though the marine layer may
linger at least near the coast keeping temperatures cooler there.
There will be some gusty northerly winds across the mountains
through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...23/147 PM.

Quite a bit of uncertainty still remains with the temperature
forecast south of Pt Conception as models are indicating either a
light onshore or light offshore gradients through at least
Wednesday and the HREF maintains at least some marine layer
stratus near the coast and even locally into the LA/Ventura
valleys. Highs today there have hovered close to the relatively
cool Sunday levels and given the above scenario it`s going to be
a struggle to get much warmer until later in the week when the
ensemble gradients indicate at least a chance of some increasing
offshore flow down here. So at least for the next day or two the
forecast highs were lowered a few degrees. Some northerly winds
are expected in the LA/Ventura/Santa Barbara Mountains at least
through Tuesday morning.

A much different story along the Central Coast where a stronger
offshore pattern has developed, leading gusty northeast Santa
Lucia winds and strong downslope warming there. Santa Maria has
reached at least 91 which breaks the previous daily record of 89.
And northeast winds continue at this hour so additional warming is
still possible before the sea breeze arrives. San Luis Obispo
airport also reached at least 91 today. Even Morro Bay was at
least 81. Expecting at least one more day of hot temperatures
there before offshore flow starts to weaken Wednesday. Though even
Wednesday through Friday there`s at least a 60% chance of highs
in the mid to upper 80s along the Central Coast so heat advisories
may need to be extended beyond the current Tuesday evening
expiration.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...23/203 PM.

Ensemble gradients are indicating some additional north to
northeast flow developing south of Pt Conception Thursday and
Friday. If this pans out temperatures across LA/Ventura coast and
valleys will warm up at least 3-6 degrees at the end of the week
and into the weekend, and possibly more at the coast if that
northeast offshore happens. Still plenty of uncertainty on that so
stay tuned through the week to see how the pattern evolves.
Temperatures along the Central Coast will remain above normal
through next weekend but generally with a slow cooling trend.

A cooling trend is expected next week as models are still
indicating a pattern change around the beginning of April. Most
of the ensembles are indicating some amount of rain, and the vast
majority of the 100 or so solutions are still under a half inch.
However, both the GFS and EC AI models are between a half and one
inch area-wide.

***OF NOTE***

This has be a phenomenally warm month. Using the forecasted high
temperatures for DTLA for today (the 23rd) to the 31st along with
the max temps that have already occurred, the DTLA average max
temp for the month would be 83.5 degrees. This would handily
eclipse the previous record holders:

79.1 degrees in 2015
76.7 degrees in 2017
76.0 degrees in 1931
75.8 degrees in 1934
75.7 degrees in 1959

&&

.AVIATION...23/1934Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2300 feet with a temperature of 33 C.

Moderate confidence for coastal TAFs SBA and south including
KLAX. There is a 25 percent chc of no VLIFR conds.

Low confidence for KBUR, KVNY, and KSMX with a 30 percent chance
of IFR or lower cigs vsbys 12Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is 25 percent chc of
1/4SM FG VV002 conds 12Z-16Z. VFR conds may not arrive until 20Z.
IFR/LIFR conds may return as early as 00Z. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 17Z with a 30 percent chc of
1/4SM FG VV002 conds 12Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/143 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Thursday, high confidence in a combination of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Wednesday, there
is a moderate chance (30-50% chance) of GALES, likely to be
focused during the afternoon thru overnight timeframe. Large seas
of 10-14 feet are possible late Wednesday through early Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, there is a
50-70% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening
hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner
Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20-30% chance
of SCA level winds focused during the afternoon and evening hours
Wednesday and Thursday.

Dense fog is possible this week, focused in the late evening to
early afternoon hours each day. Visibilities of one nautical mile
or less can be expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 340>342-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RM/Gomberg/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office