522
FXUS66 KLOX 231613
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
913 AM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...22/1154 PM.

Warmer than normal conditions are expected to persist through the
week, peaking on Tuesday. Low clouds and dense fog will continue
to impact some coastal areas each night and morning. Also, there
will be some gusty northerly winds across the mountains through
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...23/913 AM.

***UPDATE***

Warming looks solid along the Central Coast today as northeast
winds up to 40 mph in the Santa Lucias will create strong
downslope warming there. Already seeing 10-20 degrees of warming
there this morning with temperatures already in the 70s before
9am. Expecting highs there to day in the 80s and 90s and heat
advisories are in effect.

A different story south of Pt Conception where the marine layer is
winning the battle so far this morning with low clouds still well
into the valleys. Gradients haven`t turned around towards offshore
as soon as expected so highs there today have been trimmed by
several degrees. Probably still a little warming there today much
less than expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Srn CA will be sandwiched between fast moving WSW flow to the
north and large 590 dam upper high to the SE. Hgts will be near
587 dam today and Tue, but will fall a few dam on Wednesday as a
weak and dry trof moves into the area. At the sfc both the N/S and
E/W gradients will follow a typical diurnal curve. The E/W
gradient will oscillate from weak onshore flow in the morning to
moderate onshore flow in the afternoon. The N/S gradients will be
weakly offshore in the morning and weakly onshore in the
afternoon.

The weak offshore push from the N will not be strong enough to
prevent low clouds from moving in each night. The strong capping
inversion and moderate onshore push to the east will mean clearing
times will be later than usual and arrival times will be earlier.
The high hgts will smoosh the marine layer to under a 1000 ft and
bring pockets of dense fog to the coastal areas. There is better
offshore flow N of Pt Conception and this should keep most of the
low clouds away although western SBA county may see some areas of
morning low clouds.

Gusty advisory level northerly winds are also expected today and
tonight, mainly affecting the I-5 Corridor and the western
Antelope Valley Foothills with gusts 45 to 55 mph. Gusty west to
north winds are then expected at times through Thursday.

Look for a big jump in temps today across the csts and vlys. South
of Pt Conception there will be 5 to 10 degrees of warming with
less confidence across the nearshore area where the marine air
could limit warming to only 1 or 2 degrees) for csts/vlys south of
Pt Conception. The stronger NE flow N of Pt Conception will bring
15 to 20 degrees of warming. Cooler air moving in from the San
Joaquin Vly will lead to a few degrees of cooling across the far
interior. Looks for a degree or 2 of warming for most areas on
Tuesday making it the warmest day of the next 7. The lowering hgts
on Wednesday will bring a couple of degrees of cooling to the area
with the Central Coast cooling about 6 degrees as the offshore
flow weakens there.

South of Pt Conception the beaches will see 70s, the rest of the
csts 80s and the vlys will see max temps in the upper 80s and
lower 90s today. These temps will general not change much Tue and
Wed. North of Pt Conception, the Central Coast and the Santa Ynez
vly will see max temps a degree or 2 either side of 90. HEAT
ADVISORIES are in effect for this area through 800pm on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...23/250 AM.

Benign but warmer than normal weather will persist through the
xtnd period. The upper level high to the SW will strengthen and
push back into Srn CA on Thu/Fri over the weekend weak troffing
will move into the state and knock the ridge down some. At the sfc
the same diurnal trends will continue with weak to moderate
onshore flow in the E/W direction and weak offshore followed by
weak onshore flow in the N/S direction.

There will not be too much change from Wed on Thu/Fri. Look for
night through morning low clouds and patchy dense fog. Max temps
will not change much day to day with 70s at the beaches, 80s
further inland and lower 90s in the vlys.

There will be more marine layer and cooler temps over the weekend
as the trof passes overhead and onshore flow increases a touch.
Most areas will likely have 1 to 2 degrees of cooling each day. By
Sunday max temps will mostly be in the 70s and lower 80s at the
csts and in the mid to upper 80s in the vlys. Despite the cooling
max temps Sunday will end up 8 to 12 locally 15 degrees above
normal.

Things still look dry through almost the end of the month. Both
AI mdls are now converging on a rain event sometime in the 31st to
1st time frame. This storm will most likely produce about a half
inch of rain with a 20 percent chc of an inch. The EC-AI goes on
to show another system around the 6th of April.

***OF NOTE***

This has be a phenomenally warm month. Using the forecasted high
temperatures for DTLA for today (the 23rd) to the 31st along with
the max temps that have already occurred, the DTLA average max
temp for the month would be 83.5 degrees. This would handily
eclipse the previous record holders:

79.1 degrees in 2015
76.7 degrees in 2017
76.0 degrees in 1931
75.8 degrees in 1934
75.7 degrees in 1959

&&

.AVIATION...23/0951Z.

At 0835Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1600 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

Moderate confidence for coastal TAFs SBA and south including
KLAX. There is a 25 percent chc of no VLIFR conds. VFR conds may
not arrive until a hour after fcst.

Low confidence for KBUR, KVNY, and KSMX with a 40 percent chance
of IFR or lower cigs vsbys 12Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is 25 percent chc of
1/4SM FG VV002 conds 12Z-16Z. VFR conds may not arrive until 19Z.
IFR/LIFR conds may return as early as 01Z. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 17Z with a 40 percent chc of
1/4SM FG VV002 conds 12Z-17Z. Good confidence aft 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...22/924 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Thursday, high confidence in a combination of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Wednesday, there
is a moderate chance of GALES, likely to be focused during the
afternoon thru overnight timeframe, and across western portions.
Large seas of 10-14 feet are possible late Wednesday through early
Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, there is a
50-70% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening
hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner
Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20-30% chance
of SCA level winds through Thursday, focused during the afternoon
and evening hours.

Dense fog is possible this week, focused in the late evening to
early afternoon hours each day. Visibilities of one nautical mile
or less can be expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 340>342-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RM/Gomberg/RS
SYNOPSIS...RAT/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office