324
FXUS66 KLOX 072052
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
152 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...07/1254 PM.

A warming trend will continue into early next week. Temperatures
will reach the mid 70s to 80s across much of the region through
Friday, warming to the 80s and 90s over the weekend through
Tuesday. 100 degree readings may occur locally in the warmest
valleys on Mother`s day and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...07/1214 PM.

Winds will strengthen to advisory levels later this afternoon
into the overnight across the SW SB coast/western Santa Ynez range.
Wind advisories may be needed again for that timeframe on Friday.

Expecting more low clouds tonight into tomorrow morning across
the same areas. There is a better chance for marine layer stratus
across the LA Basin tomorrow morning. This is due to increasing
onshore flow indicated by a 1 mb pressure rise (LAX-DAG). In
addition, a weak to moderate Catalina Eddy is expected to develop
overnight. Whether or not low clouds arrive into the San Fernando
Valley is dependent on its strength. This is currently forecasted.
However, there is a 30% chance clouds do not arrive.

The ridge will continue to build over the area Today. High
temperatures are expected to be noticeably warmer (especially
across the interior) rising into the mid 60s to 70s for csts/vlys
and 80s across the interior. Temps may push 90 degrees across the
Antelope Valley.

On Friday, high temperatures will be somewhat similar maybe a
couple degrees warmer or cooler depending on the evolution of
marine layer stratus in the morning hours. This is especially
true for areas south of Point Conception.

The combination of strongest ridging and weak onshore flow will
result in Sunday (Mother`s Day) and Monday being the warmest days
for this warm spell. The exact magnitude of the pressure
gradients will determine how much the sea breeze will influence
max temperatures across the csts and vlys. Most ECWMF ensembles
support enough influence to keep the csts in the 70s-80s, and the
valleys in the mid 90s. However, there is a handful of solutions
that would support heat advisory across some of the valleys (20%
chance). Temperatures could also reach 100 F across the Antelope
Valley.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...07/1211 PM.

The latest trend across the majority of models (except for GFS)
has been for a "kicker" trof to push out the ridge to the east.
This would solidify a cooling trend to begin on Tuesday. Above
normal temperatures likely to continue across the interior
through the middle of next week. Increasing onshore flow should
bring back marine layer stratus which will keep coastal locations
relatively cool (near normal).

&&

.AVIATION...07/1810Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was around 3400 ft with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in TAFs through 03Z for all TAFs and for the whole
period for KPMD and KWJF. After 03Z, moderate to low confidence
in remaining sites due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds.
Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is
a 30% chance of VFR conds remaining at KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and
KVNY through the period, and a 30% chance of IFR conds at KSBA and
KPRB 11Z-17Z Fri.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours, with cigs as low as BKN004 upon
arrival before lifting through the late night/morning hours. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of VFR
conds remaining through the period.

&&

.MARINE...07/150 PM.

SCA level NW winds are expected to strengthen each day through
Saturday for the outer waters. Winds may approach Gale Force
levels Friday (15% chance), with a better chance (30%) for Gale
Force winds Saturday afternoon and evening. SCA level winds are
also likely during the late afternoon into evening hours across
the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and into at least
western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel
Islands through Saturday.

Short period seas will build during this timeframe especially
across the outer waters - reaching around 10 feet Friday through
Saturday night.

Winds and seas should diminish throughout the day on Sunday. By
Monday, conditions should be much calmer and likely below SCA
levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Phillips/Black/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/DB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office