637
FXUS66 KSGX 052008
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1208 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening Santa Ana winds today, with chances of light precipitation
mainly for the mountains tonight into Friday. Dry over the weekend
with warm conditions and weak Santa Ana winds. Pattern change
expected next week, with chances of widespread precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 12 PM, breezy easterly winds continued on mountain foothills and
below the San Gorgonio Pass with only a few isolated locations
seeing gusts over 35 mph. High clouds were streaming east to west
across the area due to an upper level closed low west of northern
Baja. The low is expected to slowly move northeast maintaining
fairly widespread high cloud coverage and bringing a slight chance
of showers to the mountains and High Desert into Friday. Any
rainfall accumulations will be light with the probability of
rainfall totals exceeding 0.10" over 24 hours is 5 to 15 percent,
highest in the San Bernardino mountains. Dry conditions will return
for the weekend.

Substantial cooling is expected between today and Friday. Highs on
Friday near the coast are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler
than today with highs further inland expected to be 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than today. The cool down will be brief, with warmer
conditions expected for the weekend. By Sunday, highs for inland
locations will be back to 10 to 15 degrees above average. Along with
the warm conditions, weak Santa Ana winds are expected for coastal
mountain foothills and below passes. A change in the overall upper
level pattern is expected for next week. The effects will be felt as
early as Monday, with temperatures expected to be 3 to 5 degrees
cooler than Sunday. Further cooling is expected through next week.

A broad troughing pattern is expected to prevail over the West Coast
next week. This pattern will bring cooler conditions, the return of
onshore flow, and chances of widespread precipitation. About 30
percent of global ensemble clusters have the low in position to
bring us precipitation on Tuesday, with more guidance showing wetter
solutions for Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the individual
ensemble members are indicating mostly light rainfall amounts, with
only a few members showing moderate amounts. There remains quite a
bit of uncertainty in the details, especially when it comes to the
timing of any precipitation. Please continue to monitor the forecast
in coming days for more information.

&&

.AVIATION...
051815Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based 1000-2000ft MSL will
develop after 06z Fri and attempt to move inland, with periods of
MVFR CIGs at coastal TAF sites. The low clouds are expected to be
patchy, which may result in periods of scattering out and
conditions briefly returning to VFR. VIS generally should be above
5SM everywhere except where clouds intersect terrain. Low clouds
should move out of inland areas or scatter out by 16z Fri.

High clouds AOA 15,000ft MSL continuing to stream over the area,
moving out by 12-18z Fri. Easterly winds will continue to weaken
through 21z today, falling below 20 mph for nearly everywhere.
Slight chance of -SHRA mainly over mountains and deserts after 00Z,
with cloud bases as low as 8000 feet MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
A building northwesterly swell (280 degrees) at 15-16 seconds may
bring seas of 6-9 feet in the outer waters near/around San Clemente
Island Friday and Saturday. This may also lead to localized steep,
rough conditions near the entrance to the San Diego Bay/Zuniga
Shoal. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected
through Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Increasing long-period (15-16 second) swell from the west-northwest
(280 degrees) will bring elevated to high surf of 5-8 feet with
locally higher sets to 10 feet late Friday into Saturday. Impacts
will be greatest at west facing beaches, especially across southern
San Diego County, and there will be a high risk for rip currents.
Further information can be found in the High Surf Advisory. This may
also lead to minor tidal overflow for low-lying beach areas during
high tide late Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM PST Sunday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office