737
FXUS66 KSGX 050047
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
447 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly below normal temperatures today with clearing skies.
Warmer and drier weather late this week into the weekend with
weak to moderate Santa Anas winds and highs 5-15 degrees above
normal through Sunday. Temperatures begin to cool Monday as
flow switches to onshore and troughing returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE...

Showers have come to an end this morning with skies quickly
clearing. Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery shows the low
that passed through California this morning is already over
Nevada, with drier air filtering in on the back side of the low.
Zonal flow today transitions to weak ridging by Thursday, allowing
for one final morning of marine layer clouds along the coastline
Thursday morning. Still, drier air will begin to mix in as
offshore flow returns, and any clouds on Thursday will likely
clear quickly after sunrise. Temperatures warm tomorrow by around
5 degrees over today for areas west of the mountains, staying
steady for eastern areas as the weak ridge sets up. By Friday,
offshore flow intensifies with a more robust high as global models
hone in on a weak to moderate Santa Ana event for Friday through
Sunday. With these northeasterly winds, warmer temperatures and
drier conditions are in store of the weekend and highs for areas
west of the mountains soar to the mid to upper 80s. Minor HeatRisk
returns for the western regions as early as Friday, with
localized areas of moderate HeatRisk for Saturday and Sunday.
Humidity will fall to the teens this weekend for valleys and
coastal mountains, with poor overnight recovery 35-50%.

Temperatures remain abnormally warm on Monday with high pressure
over the region, despite a decrease in the offshore flow. Things
cooldown a bit by Tuesday as the high shifts eastward and onshore
flow resumes. The pattern mid to late next week remains chaotic,
with both the GFS and ECMWF indicating a return to cooler weather
and precipitation, but with very different outcomes. At this
point confidence is high for a pattern shift, but as to what that
will mean for SoCal remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
050025...Coastal Areas...FEW clouds with bases 3500 ft MSL
dissipating overnight. Otherwise...FEW-SCT clouds at or abv 20000 ft
with unrestricted VIS Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through next Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
High tides will rise at the end of the week, reaching 7 ft as early
as Thursday in Orange County, and Friday in San Diego County. Tides
will peak Sunday/Monday at 7.4-7.6 ft. A northwest swell of 2-3 ft
with a 14-16 second period is predicted to arrive on Friday, likely
to persist through early next week. This will likely bring surf of 3-
5 feet with sets to 6 feet along west-facing beaches. The
combination of high tides near 7-7.5 feet and the elevated surf,
minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides
Saturday-Tuesday, especially for the west-facing coastlines. A
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued and will be in effect from 4
AM Friday to 12 PM Tuesday.

Reminder, tides mentioned have been corrected to reflect the current
trends in actual tide observations.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM Friday to noon PST Tuesday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Zuber
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office