561
FXUS65 KPSR 052041
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
141 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today through the
  start of next week with lower desert highs in the upper 70s to
  lower 80s, or around 10 degrees above normal.

- Overall dry weather conditions should prevail through at least
  this weekend before a pattern change later next week brings
  cooler temperatures and potential precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Rex block over the West is slowly breaking down today, with
latest analysis early this afternoon showing the strong
anticyclone has shifted eastward to over Utah and the low to the
south is starting to lift north with mid and high level clouds
moving into the Desert Southwest out ahead of it. It was an
abnormally warm start to today, especially across south-central AZ
where a tightened pressure gradient kept surface winds elevated
through last night. Phoenix Sky Harbor set a new record warm low
this morning with 58 degrees. The pressure gradient will loosen
through the rest of this afternoon with easterly wind gusts
mostly between 15-25 mph. Despite the increased cloud cover,
afternoon temperatures are still forecast to reach the upper 70s
to around 80 degrees across the lower deserts this afternoon.

A continued flux of anomalous mid and upper level moisture will
lead to thicker and thicker clouds aloft, but a very dry sfc-700mb
layer will inhibit any meaningful shot at precipitation at the
surface this afternoon through tonight. Mosaic radar is already
showing a lot of light virga echoes early this afternoon, which
will be common across the region through tonight. With just a
little bit of dynamic and synoptic forcing some sprinkles may
reach the surface to at most a brief very light shower. The
remnants of the low to the south will then lift north of the area
by daybreak Friday. Through Friday, another upper level low,
currently seen on wv satellite well off the CA coast, will slide
southeastward into the space currently occupied by the
aforementioned low to the southwest of the area and the
anticyclone will open up with a ridge axis pushing into the
Plains. Latest global ensembles show 500mb heights will slowly
lower through Friday as the next low nears the area, but the low
level thermal profile will see little if any change, with 850mb
temps remaining around 12-15C. This will result in high
temperatures Friday very similar to today, if not a degree warmer
with more afternoon solar radiation.

The temperatures both today and Friday will result in Minor
HeatRisk for most lower elevation valley locations, meaning any
individual extremely sensitive to heat is at risk of health
impacts. There have been many heat related calls for help over the
previous couple of days, proving that heat can still be impactful
in the desert in early February. So, it is always a good idea to
practice heat safety if planning to spend a long time outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
The cut off low that moves in just south of our area will help
lower heights aloft but due to its warm nature we will continue to
be under the influence of positive height anomalies through early
next week. Very little spread between the 25th and 75th
percentile are seen for high temperatures for this weekend through
Monday. That being said temperatures across the lower desert
region are expected to remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Model
ensembles are still hinting at a deeper troughing feature digging
down the West Coast by the later half of the week but there is
still uncertainty with the strength and positioning of this
system. Given this is still a week away, we should not put much
stock in the guidance for another few days.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1755Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The primary aviation weather concern will be occasionally gusty
E/SE winds under increasing mid and high cloud decks (bases
remaining generally AOA 10 kft AGL). Winds remain elevated out of
the E/SE and will gust to 15-20 kts at times through approximately
22Z, after which gusts should mostly subside and sustained speeds
should remain AOB 10 kts. A period of virga showers will be
possible late this afternoon through this evening, with low
confidence in brief VCSH/-SHRA conditions.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The only weather issues will be low confidence on wind directions
this evening through Friday morning and the potential for virga or
brief VCSH/-SHRA conditions. Winds will favor NE through this
afternoon, with low confidence on a NW/W component developing this
evening. Instead, winds may begin to exhibit extended periods of
variability this evening through Friday morning, with speeds AOB 6
kts. Periods of SCT-BKN mid and high cloud decks with bases
remaining above 10 kft AGL are anticipated through Friday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably warm temperatures and overall dry conditions will
persist through this weekend, with high temperatures in the upper
70s to lower 80s and afternoon MinRHs of 15-25%. Breezy easterly
winds across eastern districts, with gusts up to 20-30 mph, will
gradually subside through this evening and then lighter winds will
follow Friday through this weekend. With a pattern shift going
into the middle to end of next week temperatures will cool and
humidities will improve slightly with MinRHs between 20-30%. There
will also be an introduction of slight chances for rain across
primarily eastern districts beginning the middle of next week, but
there is still too much uncertainty in the weather pattern
evolution next week to put much stock in the rain chances at this
point.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict
LONG TERM...Kuhlman/Benedict
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office