026
FXUS66 KLOX 030621
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1021 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...02/455 PM.

An upper trough of low pressure will bring a cooling trend to the
region through Wednesday, with temperatures dropping a few degrees
each day. Skies will be mostly clear through Tuesday except for
night through morning low clouds and fog across the coasts and
lower valleys. Dry conditions are expected until Wednesday, when
there could be some light rain along the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...02/725 PM.

***UPDATE***

Quiet weather is expected through the immediate short term, with
the only forecast challenge being the height of marine layer
clouds and possibility of dense fog. While the marine layer was
initially expected to deepen some compared to last night, the
latest observations from METAR stations indicate another round of
dense fog along the Central Coast. South of Point Conception a
deeper layer is expected, aided by increasing onshore gradients
and a coastal eddy forming over the So Cal Bight. Will need to
trim back low cloud coverage from the interior Central Coast,
otherwise the overnight forecast is on track (aside from possibly
needing a Dense Fog Advisory late tonight).

As for temperatures, expect cooling of about 3 to 6 degrees in
most places Monday compared to today`s highs. The warmest valleys
should see highs around 80 degrees with 60s and 70s closer to the
coast. On Tuesday, coastal areas and coastal valleys will see
little change, with 2 to 4 degrees cooling further inland.

Light winds are expected through Monday morning, with an uptick
in onshore winds through the interior passes and canyons of LA
County into the Antelope Valley later in the afternoon. Peak gusts
will be between 20 to 25 mph.

***From Previous Discussion***

Tuesday night through Wednesday, the southern end of a large
trough originating in the Gulf Alaska will sweep across
California. The tail end of the associated cold front will pass
through San Luis Obispo County (SLO) and Western Santa Barbara
County (SBA) (impacting areas north of Point Conception) starting
Tuesday night and moving out of the area by Wednesday evening.
Rainfall amounts will be under a quarter inch, mostly under a
tenth, with the usual exception of the extreme NW tip of SLO
(Rocky Butte) which will likely see more. As for Ventura and LA
counties, it will be partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday, but no
rain is forecast for this week, save for any drizzle that might
occur from a deepening marine layer. As for temperatures on
Wednesday, continued lowering heights from the trough, better
onshore flow, and the clouds will all combine and lower temps by 2
to 4 degrees making it the coolest of the next 7. The coasts and
valleys will end up with highs only in the upper 60s and 70s.

Gusty north winds will likely set up behind the front, but as of
now, any winds look below advisory levels. The areas that may see
the highest wind gusts (but again, likely under advisory levels)
will be the SBA south coast and the I-5 corridor on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...02/147 PM.

Thursday through Saturday should be mostly clear, as a ridge of
high pressure starts to build in and offshore winds keeping the
threat of low clouds off the coasts. Most coastal areas will warm
3 to 5 degrees Thursday while the interior cool a little more due
to residual cool air. All areas will see 3 to 6 degrees of
warming both Friday and Saturday as the increased heights and
increase in offshore flow combine. Most areas will see max temps 2
to 4 degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday with plenty of
80s in the valleys.

Saturday night through Sunday, the offshore flow weakens and
reverses to onshore while the ridge of high pressure starts to
move eastward (resulting in lowering 500 mb heights). The onshore
switch will most likely allow marine layer clouds to return to
the coastal areas. Between the onshore flow, and lowering 500 mb
heights, Sunday will see around 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0620Z.

At 0450Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3400 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. VFR conds could
arrive up to 90 minutes later than fcst. There is a 30 percent chc
that cigs will be 200-300 hier than fcst. There is a 20 percent
chc of no low clouds at KBUR and KVNY.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as late
as 21Z. There is a 30% chance that cigs will remain AOA OVC005. There
is a 20% chance of easterly winds around 6 knots after 12Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of no
low clouds. If low clouds do arrive they could arrive as early as
10Z. There is a 20 percent chc that cigs will be OVC004.

&&

.MARINE...02/746 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in a combination of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas, though there is a 20
percent chance that SCA seas linger into Monday morning. From
Monday through Wednesday, winds and seas are likely to remain
below SCA levels. On Thursday and Friday, high confidence in a
combination of SCA level winds and seas developing with a 30%
chance of Gale force winds around Point Conception.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, winds and seas will
remain below SCA levels. For Thursday and Friday, a combination of
SCA winds and seas is expected.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, high
confidence in winds remaining below SCA levels for most of the
southern waters. The only exception will be the western half of
the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level
winds Thursday through Friday, mainly during the late afternoon
and evening hours. As for seas, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA
level seas Thursday through Friday, mainly across the Santa
Barbara Channel.

&&

.BEACHES...02/745 PM.

A long-period, northwesterly swell will continue to generate high
surf conditions across the west and northwest-facing beaches of
the Central Coast through Monday night. Surf heights of 10 to 14
feet can be expected with strong and dangerous rip currents.

Further out, a large, long period, west to northwest swell will
move across the coastal waters Thursday through Friday. This swell
is expected to generate significant surf across the local beaches.
As this time, surf heights of 15-18 feet with local sets to 20
feet are expected across the Central Coast...8-12 feet across the
west-facing beaches of Ventura county and 5-8 feet across the
west-facing beaches of LA county. These surf conditions will
generate very strong and dangerous rip currents along with the
potential for breaking waves at the Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor
entrances.

Additionally, on Thursday and Friday, high tides will peak around
7 feet. So, there will be the potential for some coastal flooding
issues across the local beaches, including shallow flooding of
parking lots and inundation of normally dry beach areas and harbor
walkways.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...jld/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Flagstaff Office